Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Short Commentary on Israel vs. Iran - Preemptive Strike?


Israel's unique dilemma in the Middle East has been a self-fulfilling prophecy from its inception. It is a shame that, in the name of survival and self-defense, Israel has found it necessary to mistreat so many, especially considering the history of persecution shared by some its citizens and woven into the fabric of its identity. Israel's policies over the years have only deepened its isolation in the region, which, like it or not, was understandable if unavoidable.

Of course that's ancient history now and we have to live in the real world. In the real world Israel is going to do what it feels it must to survive, and the U.S. will continue to pander to Israeli policies. It probably would be a very bad thing for Iran to get nukes, and a preemptive strike on Iran would most likely have far reaching, negative implications that we can't begin to predict from this vantage point. Iran by itself with a nuclear capability is probably not much of a real threat to the whole world, but I think it's reasonable that Israel considers that eventuality unacceptable.

The scary thing about any military action involving Iran is not so much Iran itself, but where the allies on both sides will fall in line once any military action begins. It is an unfortunate situation where both outcomes look bleak, but the United States, the UN, and Israel are the most responsible for Middle Eastern politics today, including Iran. One way or another, we're going to find ourselves sleeping in the bed we made.